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Forward Engagement: The Study of Long-range Developments as Factors in Contemporary National Policy
IAFF 290.10
Elliott School of International Affairs, The
George Washington University
Professor Leon Fuerth
The
objective of this course is to accustom graduate students to thinking
in an integrated way about potentially major societal events in the
longer-range future, and
simultaneously, to consider initiatives that might be taken in the
present to better devise public policy for meeting these contingencies.
In the real
world, issues are far more inter-connected than our specializations
suggest, and to filter out these connections imperils our ability to
appreciate what is shaping our lives. Therefore, Forward Engagement
does not relate only to security issues: it tries to comprehend major
developments in the broad categories of defense, economics, science and
technology, and governance – and it also strives to understand how
these developments interact. This approach will complement the training
of students who are preparing for careers in government or who are
seriously interested in public policy though enrolled in other
specializations.
The
course also serves as an adaptive research and analytical organization that
learns from and modifies the work of its predecessors.
Click here or scroll down to view a list of Future Contingencies of Interest (FCIs) explored by Forward Engagement students.
GRADUATE COURSE PUBLICATIONS:
Future Contingencies of Interest (FCIs) explored by Forward Engagement Students include:
Economics FCIs
-
Global
Economic shift to Asia
-
Elderly
strain the health care system
-
A
safe and clean method of destroying spent nuclear fuel
-
Loss
of Dollar Dominance
-
Rising
Obesity
-
Global
Urbanization
-
Regionalization
of World Politics
-
The
Return of the City-State
-
The
End of Government Regulation of Private Industry
-
Anti-Globalization/Isolationism/protectionism
-
US
Credit Implodes
-
Economic balance of power shifts
to Asia
-
Agricultural
resource depletion reaches threshold
-
Confirmation
that il production reaches its peak
Governance / Society FCIs
-
Adoption
of global grid computing technology to enable geographically dispersed
computing technologies to virtually share data
-
Standing
army for the EU
-
Increased
Domestic surveillance
-
Colonization
of Space
-
Global
pandemics intensified by multi-drug resistance, end to effectiveness of
antibiotics
-
Internet and Mobile Phones in
Developing Countries
-
Multiculturalism and unabsorbed
population
-
European instability (inclusive of
NATO)
-
Collapse
of Multi-lateralism
-
US
loses control of the Internet
-
Life
expectancy reaches 100 years
-
America
Ages, stops senescing
Science and Technology FCIs
-
Advances in molecular biology lead
to manipulation abilities
-
Discovery
of extraterrestrial life
-
Confirmation
of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) in Physics
-
Emergent
Applications of quantum physics (e.g., computing/encryption, teleportation)
-
Computing
power rises exponentially
-
Discovery
of a large asteroid on a collision course with earth
-
Space
exploration leads to successful mining of resources
-
Room-temperature
superconductor is discovered
-
Humans
attain ability to forecast and manipulate long-term weather patterns
-
End
of energy scarcity through alternative energies
-
End
of water scarcity via nanotechnology applications
-
Nanotechnology
becomes the 21st century “Industrial Revolution”
-
Carbon
nanotube composite strength reaches level requisite for space elevator
-
Nuclear
Fusion becomes a viable source of energy
-
Hydrogen
or electric-powered automobiles become the standard mode of transportation
-
Solar
and wind power are increasingly employed as a source of energy
-
Convergence of Nano-Info-Bio +
Neuro
-
Pervasive
Computing redefines human activity
-
Converging
sciences yield understanding of brain operations
-
Artificial
Intelligence systems evolve independently of humans; lack of control over
intelligent computer systems
-
Robots
replace much of work force
-
Neurotechnologies
allows for mind-to-mind communication
-
Biological
basis for the human soul is discovered
-
Medical
advances redefine human life (regenerative body parts, cloning, new strands of
human species)
-
Stem
Cells are developed for medical purposes
-
Development
of a new strain of bacteria/virus that leads to biological weapons being
released on a global scale
-
Developed
nations reject “western” medicine on a large scale
Defense / Security FCIs
-
Cyberstrikes
on critical infrastructure
-
Rise
of transnational criminal groups
-
Suicide
Attacks become commonplace
-
Proliferation
of failed states
-
Revolution
in Military Affairs (i.e. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
-
Weaponization
of Space / space arms race
-
Government
attains ability to track all citizens
-
China
and India Emerge as Superpowers
-
Global
Warming causes drastic climate change
-
Deforestation
destroys natural carbon cycle
-
Nuclear/Biological/Chemical
(NBC) Attack
-
Iran
becomes a regional hegemon
-
Robotic
warfare
-
Transnational
organized crime
-
Worldwide
Infertility resulting from hormone-laden food and water
-
Water
Scarcity
-
Israel-Palestine
Peace through Science & Technology
-
Computers
Pervade our environment
-
Computers
pass Turing Test
-
Transnational Corporations become
more Powerful than Governments
-
Privatization of war / proliferation of private military
corporations
-
Disruption of the Global Maritime
Commons.
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